Using past behaviour to predict future behaviour in war is what lead to the Maginot Line, and we all know what a great defence that was.
Yes and no. The Maginot line was actually large enough and strong enough that the German Armored Formations bypassed them where possible. In the center of the front, there was very little movement of the front until the Fortresses had been reduced from the rear over the course of weeks. From a modern force doctrine, the Maginot line was pretty good. They just failed to take into account for a lot of new factors. And More critically, the fact that the germans would bypass it again as they had before by going through the low countries. Eban Emael was sufficiently strong and difficult in the geology of Belgium that it was a key point the germans HAD to take in order to enter the rest of the low countries and then france. More over, the entire French Military doctrine was too stiff to quickly respond to the german invasion. The German advance was inside the decision making loop of the French High command. Even the larger, more powerful French ARmored Units in the north were being sent forwards to engage german forces that were already 20 miles to their rear. The example is very poor because there's so much more of an issue with the Maginot line than just "It was a static front and war in the future was about mobile fronts".
Is the threat from just people who look like 'Arabs'[1] or is it from the Islamic population in general?
The threat is largely from People from the Middle East who are devotees to a not so uncommon interpretation of Islam. A White or Asian octogenarian is NOT a threat based on current data. Islamofascist tactics are changing, but they're still sticking to a general pattern. The Home Growns are a new factor, but not significantly outside their previous pattern.
If security focuses on young Arab men, then they are much more likely to miss someone who isn't. [2]
There should be little excuse for a young Arab descended male Terrorist boarding an aircraft with explosives or with knives. Yes they have started going to pains to make themselves look less arab, shave, haircut, etc. But strictly speaking, the obvious holes should have been plugged a long damn time ago.
If your ship has a leak, you fix the big bloody leak that's right in front of you, you don't ignore it and only apply general work to all of the hull. Nor do you ignore the rest of the hull, but half assed measures on the big leak are going to bite you in the ass.
Just looking at men? Women have been sucide bombers for over 20 years. Women of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), or Tamil Tigers, have perpetrated 30–40% of the organization's suicide bombings, which number more than 200.
But the larger picture doesn't include the TAmils in the West, they're mostly isolated to Shri Lanka are they not?
no subject
Yes and no. The Maginot line was actually large enough and strong enough that the German Armored Formations bypassed them where possible. In the center of the front, there was very little movement of the front until the Fortresses had been reduced from the rear over the course of weeks. From a modern force doctrine, the Maginot line was pretty good. They just failed to take into account for a lot of new factors. And More critically, the fact that the germans would bypass it again as they had before by going through the low countries. Eban Emael was sufficiently strong and difficult in the geology of Belgium that it was a key point the germans HAD to take in order to enter the rest of the low countries and then france. More over, the entire French Military doctrine was too stiff to quickly respond to the german invasion. The German advance was inside the decision making loop of the French High command. Even the larger, more powerful French ARmored Units in the north were being sent forwards to engage german forces that were already 20 miles to their rear. The example is very poor because there's so much more of an issue with the Maginot line than just "It was a static front and war in the future was about mobile fronts".
Is the threat from just people who look like 'Arabs'[1] or is it from the Islamic population in general?
The threat is largely from People from the Middle East who are devotees to a not so uncommon interpretation of Islam. A White or Asian octogenarian is NOT a threat based on current data. Islamofascist tactics are changing, but they're still sticking to a general pattern. The Home Growns are a new factor, but not significantly outside their previous pattern.
If security focuses on young Arab men, then they are much more likely to miss someone who isn't. [2]
There should be little excuse for a young Arab descended male Terrorist boarding an aircraft with explosives or with knives. Yes they have started going to pains to make themselves look less arab, shave, haircut, etc. But strictly speaking, the obvious holes should have been plugged a long damn time ago.
If your ship has a leak, you fix the big bloody leak that's right in front of you, you don't ignore it and only apply general work to all of the hull. Nor do you ignore the rest of the hull, but half assed measures on the big leak are going to bite you in the ass.
Just looking at men?
Women have been sucide bombers for over 20 years.
Women of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), or Tamil Tigers, have perpetrated 30–40% of the organization's suicide bombings, which number more than 200.
But the larger picture doesn't include the TAmils in the West, they're mostly isolated to Shri Lanka are they not?